Verian (Emnid) poll of 4 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 25 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,452
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne11.0%-1.0
- BSW7.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others8.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 6 Sep 2024.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,452 people were surveyed from 25 Sep 2024 to 1 Oct 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 6 Sep 2024, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.5average 32.5
- BSW -1.1average 8.1
- SPD +1.0average 15.0
- Freie Wähler +1.0average 2.0
- AfD -0.6average 17.6
- Grüne -0.1average 11.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU238
- AfD131
- SPD123
- Grüne84
- BSW54
- CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne338 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.