Verian (Emnid) poll of 12 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 3 to 9 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,486
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%-1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%+1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others10.0%+3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 12 Jun 2024.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 16.0%. 1,486 people were surveyed from 3 to 9 Jul 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 12 Jun 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -1.1average 17.1
- BSW -0.7average 7.7
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- Grüne +0.6average 12.4
- CDU/CSU +0.2average 30.8
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU224
- AfD116
- SPD109
- Grüne94
- BSW51
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.