Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 22 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
13 to 19 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,480
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
  • AfD18.0%±0
  • SPD17.0%+1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • BSW5.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others8.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 2 Mar 2024.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,480 people were surveyed from 13 to 19 Mar 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 2 Mar 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.6average 13.4
  • CDU/CSU -1.4average 30.4
  • BSW -1.2average 6.2
  • SPD +0.9average 16.1
  • FDP +0.6average 4.4
  • AfD +0.3average 17.7
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 206 seatsAfD: 128 seatsSPD: 120 seatsGrüne: 106 seatsFDP: 35 seatsBSW: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU206
  • AfD128
  • SPD120
  • Grüne106
  • FDP35
  • BSW35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD334 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW347 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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