Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 2 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
21 to 27 Feb 2024
Respondents
1,392
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
  • AfD18.0%-1.0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others9.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 24 Feb 2024.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,392 people were surveyed from 21 to 27 Feb 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 24 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has BSW 2.6 points lower and Grüne 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW -2.6average 6.6
  • Grüne +1.7average 13.3
  • SPD +1.1average 14.9
  • AfD -0.9average 18.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 30.3
  • FDP +0.3average 4.7
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 225 seatsAfD: 135 seatsSPD: 120 seatsGrüne: 112 seatsFDP: 38 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU225
  • AfD135
  • SPD120
  • Grüne112
  • FDP38
  • CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne337 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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