Verian (Emnid) poll of 27 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 23 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,922
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU29.0%-2.0
- AfD19.0%-3.0
- SPD16.0%+2.0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- BSW3.0%
- Others9.0%+3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 Jan 2024.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,922 people were surveyed from 16 to 23 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 Jan 2024, AfD loses 3.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has BSW 3.4 points lower and Grüne 3.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -3.4average 6.4
- Grüne +3.0average 13.0
- AfD -2.5average 21.5
- CDU/CSU -1.7average 30.7
- SPD +1.5average 14.5
- FDP -1.3average 5.3
- Linke ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU228
- AfD150
- SPD126
- Grüne126
- CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne354 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.