Verian (Emnid) poll of 20 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 11 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,359
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD22.0%+1.0
- Grüne16.0%+1.0
- SPD14.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%
- Others6.0%-4.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 23 Dec 2023.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,359 people were surveyed from 9 to 11 Jan 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 23 Dec 2023, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 2.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.9average 13.1
- FDP -1.1average 5.1
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 31.4
- AfD -0.2average 22.2
- Linke +0.2average 3.8
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 3.1
- SPD ±0average 14.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU235
- AfD167
- Grüne122
- SPD106
- CDU/CSU + AfD402 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD395 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.