Verian (Emnid) poll of 16 December 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 6 to 12 Dec 2023
- Respondents
- 1,515
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- AfD20.0%±0
- Grüne16.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others10.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 9 Dec 2023.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,515 people were surveyed from 6 to 12 Dec 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 9 Dec 2023, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 2.4 points higher and AfD 2.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +2.4average 13.6
- AfD -2.1average 22.1
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 31.2
- Linke +0.3average 3.7
- SPD +0.2average 14.8
- FDP -0.2average 5.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU220
- AfD146
- Grüne117
- SPD110
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD366 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD330 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD373 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.