Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 16 December 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
6 to 12 Dec 2023
Respondents
1,515
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • Grüne16.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Others10.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 9 Dec 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,515 people were surveyed from 6 to 12 Dec 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 9 Dec 2023, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 2.4 points higher and AfD 2.1 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +2.4average 13.6
  • AfD -2.1average 22.1
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 31.2
  • Linke +0.3average 3.7
  • SPD +0.2average 14.8
  • FDP -0.2average 5.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 220 seatsAfD: 146 seatsGrüne: 117 seatsSPD: 110 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU220
  • AfD146
  • Grüne117
  • SPD110
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD330 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD373 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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