Verian (Emnid) poll of 4 November 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 19 to 25 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,418
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU27.0%-1.0
- AfD21.0%+1.0
- SPD17.0%+1.0
- Grüne16.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%-1.0
- Others10.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 28 Oct 2023.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,418 people were surveyed from 19 to 25 Oct 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 28 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU 2.5 points lower and Grüne 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Nov 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.5average 29.5
- Grüne +2.0average 14.0
- SPD +1.1average 15.9
- AfD -0.4average 21.4
- FDP -0.4average 5.4
- Linke -0.3average 4.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU198
- AfD154
- SPD124
- Grüne117
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne395 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP352 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.