Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 28 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
18 to 24 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,422
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU28.0%-3.0
  • AfD20.0%-1.0
  • SPD16.0%+2.0
  • Grüne16.0%+1.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Others10.0%+3.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 21 Oct 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,422 people were surveyed from 18 to 24 Oct 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 21 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 2.1 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +2.1average 13.9
  • CDU/CSU -1.7average 29.7
  • AfD -1.4average 21.4
  • Linke +0.7average 4.3
  • FDP -0.6average 5.6
  • SPD +0.4average 15.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 196 seatsAfD: 140 seatsSPD: 112 seatsGrüne: 112 seatsFDP: 35 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU196
  • AfD140
  • SPD112
  • Grüne112
  • FDP35
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne420 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke343 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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