Verian (Emnid) poll of 21 October 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- FOCUS
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 17 Oct 2023
- Respondents
- 1,388
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%+4.0
- AfD21.0%-1.0
- Grüne15.0%±0
- SPD14.0%-2.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 14 Oct 2023.
In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,388 people were surveyed from 11 to 17 Oct 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.
Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 14 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU 2.6 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU +2.6average 28.4
- SPD -2.2average 16.2
- Grüne +0.9average 14.1
- AfD -0.7average 21.7
- FDP -0.6average 5.6
- Linke -0.6average 4.6
- Freie Wähler -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU227
- AfD154
- Grüne110
- SPD102
- FDP37
- CDU/CSU + AfD381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne337 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD366 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.