Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 21 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
11 to 17 Oct 2023
Respondents
1,388
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+4.0
  • AfD21.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-2.0
  • FDP5.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 14 Oct 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,388 people were surveyed from 11 to 17 Oct 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 14 Oct 2023, CDU/CSU gains 4.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU 2.6 points higher and SPD 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +2.6average 28.4
  • SPD -2.2average 16.2
  • Grüne +0.9average 14.1
  • AfD -0.7average 21.7
  • FDP -0.6average 5.6
  • Linke -0.6average 4.6
  • Freie Wähler -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 227 seatsAfD: 154 seatsGrüne: 110 seatsSPD: 102 seatsFDP: 37 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU227
  • AfD154
  • Grüne110
  • SPD102
  • FDP37
  • CDU/CSU + AfD381 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD366 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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