Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 7 October 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
26 to 28 Sep 2023
Respondents
1,391
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne16.0%+1.0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others9.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 30 Sep 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,391 people were surveyed from 26 to 28 Sep 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 30 Sep 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has Grüne 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Oct 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +1.6average 14.4
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 27.2
  • SPD -1.1average 17.1
  • FDP +0.8average 6.2
  • AfD -0.6average 21.6
  • Linke +0.4average 4.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 180 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 111 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU180
  • AfD145
  • SPD111
  • Grüne111
  • FDP48
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.