Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 30 September 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
20 to 26 Sep 2023
Respondents
1,356
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU27.0%±0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%-1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • Others9.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 23 Sep 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,356 people were surveyed from 20 to 26 Sep 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 23 Sep 2023, SPD loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.1average 17.1
  • AfD -0.7average 21.7
  • Grüne +0.6average 14.4
  • FDP +0.6average 6.4
  • Linke +0.4average 4.6
  • CDU/CSU ±0average 27.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 187 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU187
  • AfD145
  • SPD111
  • Grüne104
  • FDP48
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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