Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 15 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
29 Jun 2023 to 5 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,393
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • AfD20.0%±0
  • SPD19.0%+1.0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP7.0%+1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others8.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 8 Jul 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,393 people were surveyed from 29 Jun 2023 to 5 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 8 Jul 2023, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 26.9
  • SPD +0.6average 18.4
  • Grüne +0.4average 14.6
  • Linke +0.3average 4.7
  • AfD -0.1average 20.1
  • FDP +0.1average 6.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 178 seatsAfD: 137 seatsSPD: 130 seatsGrüne: 103 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU178
  • AfD137
  • SPD130
  • Grüne103
  • FDP48
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + SPD445 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne418 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne411 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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