Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 8 July 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
28 Jun 2023 to 4 Jul 2023
Respondents
1,403
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU27.0%+1.0
  • AfD20.0%+1.0
  • SPD18.0%±0
  • Grüne15.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%-1.0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others9.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 1 Jul 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,403 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2023 to 4 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 1 Jul 2023, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • FDP -0.8average 6.8
  • SPD -0.7average 18.7
  • Grüne +0.5average 14.5
  • AfD +0.4average 19.6
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 27.3
  • Linke +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 187 seatsAfD: 138 seatsSPD: 125 seatsGrüne: 104 seatsFDP: 41 seatsLinke: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU187
  • AfD138
  • SPD125
  • Grüne104
  • FDP41
  • Linke35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne416 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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