Single poll

Verian (Emnid) poll of 18 March 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
FOCUS
Fieldwork period
8 to 14 Mar 2023
Respondents
1,423
Method
Telefonisch
  • CDU/CSU28.0%-1.0
  • SPD19.0%±0
  • Grüne18.0%-1.0
  • AfD15.0%+2.0
  • FDP7.0%±0
  • Linke5.0%±0
  • Others8.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 11 Mar 2023.

In this poll Verian (Emnid) has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 19.0%. 1,423 people were surveyed from 8 to 14 Mar 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by FOCUS.

Compared with the previous Verian (Emnid) poll of 11 Mar 2023, AfD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Verian (Emnid) has SPD 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Mar 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD -1.6average 20.6
  • Grüne +1.3average 16.7
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 29.2
  • FDP +0.6average 6.4
  • Linke +0.2average 4.8
  • AfD +0.1average 14.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 192 seatsSPD: 130 seatsGrüne: 123 seatsAfD: 103 seatsFDP: 48 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU192
  • SPD130
  • Grüne123
  • AfD103
  • FDP48
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD418 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP363 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD356 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke329 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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