Single poll

Trend Research Hamburg poll of 25 August 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Radio Hamburg
Fieldwork period
12 to 18 Aug 2021
Respondents
1,096
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU23.0%-13.0
  • SPD21.0%-1.0
  • Grüne17.0%+10.0
  • FDP13.0%+4.0
  • AfD12.0%+1.0
  • Linke7.0%-3.0
  • Others8.0%+4.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 18 Sep 2017.

In this poll Trend Research Hamburg has CDU/CSU ahead on 23.0%, followed by SPD on 21.0%. 1,096 people were surveyed from 12 to 18 Aug 2021, method Online, commissioned by Radio Hamburg.

Compared with the previous Trend Research Hamburg poll of 18 Sep 2017, CDU/CSU loses 13.0 points, Grüne gains 10.0 points, FDP gains 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Trend Research Hamburg has CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 25 Aug 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.8average 24.8
  • FDP +1.3average 11.7
  • SPD +1.0average 20.0
  • AfD +1.0average 11.0
  • Grüne -0.9average 17.9
  • Linke ±0average 7.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 156 seatsSPD: 143 seatsGrüne: 115 seatsFDP: 88 seatsAfD: 81 seatsLinke: 47 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU156
  • SPD143
  • Grüne115
  • FDP88
  • AfD81
  • Linke47
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne414 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP387 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + AfD352 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke346 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + FDP346 of 630
  • SPD + Grüne + AfD339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + FDP + AfD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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