Single poll

pollytix poll of 26 January 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
Campact
Fieldwork period
19 to 22 Jan 2024
Respondents
1,530
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%+2.0
  • AfD22.0%+10.0
  • SPD15.0%-8.0
  • Grüne12.0%-3.0
  • BSW9.0%
  • FDP5.0%-4.0
  • Linke4.0%-4.0
  • Others4.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous pollytix poll of 9 Feb 2022.

In this poll pollytix has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,530 people were surveyed from 19 to 22 Jan 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by Campact.

Compared with the previous pollytix poll of 9 Feb 2022, AfD gains 10.0 points, SPD loses 8.0 points, FDP loses 4.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, pollytix has BSW 3.2 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 26 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +3.2average 5.8
  • CDU/CSU -1.8average 30.8
  • Grüne -1.4average 13.4
  • SPD +0.7average 14.3
  • AfD +0.5average 21.5
  • FDP -0.3average 5.3
  • Linke +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 198 seatsAfD: 151 seatsSPD: 103 seatsGrüne: 82 seatsBSW: 62 seatsFDP: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU198
  • AfD151
  • SPD103
  • Grüne82
  • BSW62
  • FDP34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne383 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW342 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP335 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW316 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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