Forsa poll of 2 August 2023 for the Bavarian state election
- Commissioned by
- Süddeutsche Zeitung
- Fieldwork period
- 24 to 28 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 1,012
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CSU39.0%-2.0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler14.0%+4.0
- AfD13.0%+3.0
- SPD9.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.0%±0
- Others5.0%-3.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 3 May 2023.
In this poll Forsa has CSU ahead on 39.0%, followed by Grüne on 14.0%. 1,012 people were surveyed from 24 to 28 Jul 2023, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Süddeutsche Zeitung.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 3 May 2023, Freie Wähler gains 4.0 points, AfD gains 3.0 points, CSU loses 2.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Freie Wähler 2.5 points higher and SPD 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Aug 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler +2.5average 11.5
- SPD -1.6average 10.6
- Grüne -1.3average 15.3
- AfD -0.3average 13.3
- FDP +0.2average 3.8
- Linke +0.1average 1.9
- CSU ±0average 39.0
Seat projection from this poll
180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.
- CSU79
- Grüne29
- Freie Wähler28
- AfD26
- SPD18
- CSU + Grüne108 of 180
- CSU + Freie Wähler107 of 180
- CSU + AfD105 of 180
- CSU + SPD97 of 180
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.