Single poll

Forsa poll of 28 October 2022 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
CSU
Fieldwork period
17 to 25 Oct 2022
Respondents
1,083
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU41.0%+1.0
  • Grüne18.0%-2.0
  • Freie Wähler11.0%+1.0
  • SPD10.0%+1.0
  • AfD8.0%+1.0
  • FDP3.0%-3.0
  • Linke2.0%+1.0
  • Others7.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Jun 2022.

In this poll Forsa has CSU ahead on 41.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,083 people were surveyed from 17 to 25 Oct 2022, method Telefonisch, commissioned by CSU.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Jun 2022, FDP loses 3.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CSU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has AfD 2.2 points lower and FDP 2.2 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Oct 2022. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD -2.2average 10.2
  • FDP -2.2average 5.2
  • CSU +2.0average 39.0
  • Grüne -1.8average 19.8
  • Freie Wähler +1.4average 9.6
  • SPD +1.2average 8.8
  • Linke ±0average 2.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 84 seatsGrüne: 37 seatsFreie Wähler: 23 seatsSPD: 20 seatsAfD: 16 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU84
  • Grüne37
  • Freie Wähler23
  • SPD20
  • AfD16
  • CSU + Grüne121 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler107 of 180
  • CSU + SPD104 of 180
  • CSU + AfD100 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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