Single poll

Forsa poll of 19 May 2021 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
10 to 17 May 2021
Respondents
1,016
Method
Telefonisch
  • CSU38.0%±0
  • Grüne22.0%-1.0
  • AfD9.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler9.0%-3.0
  • SPD7.0%+1.0
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 28 Jan 2019.

In this poll Forsa has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 22.0%. 1,016 people were surveyed from 10 to 17 May 2021, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 28 Jan 2019, Freie Wähler loses 3.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CSU 3.3 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 19 May 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU -3.3average 41.3
  • Grüne +1.0average 21.0
  • SPD -1.0average 8.0
  • AfD +0.7average 8.3
  • FDP +0.7average 5.3
  • Freie Wähler +0.3average 8.7
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 75 seatsGrüne: 43 seatsAfD: 18 seatsFreie Wähler: 18 seatsSPD: 14 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU75
  • Grüne43
  • AfD18
  • Freie Wähler18
  • SPD14
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne118 of 180
  • CSU + AfD93 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler93 of 180
  • CSU + SPD + FDP101 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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