Single poll

Forsa poll of 9 July 2018 for the Bavarian state election

Commissioned by
RTL / n-tv
Fieldwork period
4 to 6 Jul 2018
Respondents
1,003
Method
Unbekannt
  • CSU38.0%-2.0
  • Grüne15.0%+1.0
  • AfD14.0%+1.0
  • SPD12.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler8.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 25 Jun 2018.

In this poll Forsa has CSU ahead on 38.0%, followed by Grüne on 15.0%. 1,003 people were surveyed from 4 to 6 Jul 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 25 Jun 2018, CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has CSU 3.6 points lower and Grüne 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Jul 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CSU -3.6average 41.6
  • Grüne +1.9average 13.1
  • Freie Wähler +1.5average 6.5
  • AfD +1.0average 13.0
  • SPD -0.9average 12.9
  • FDP +0.7average 5.3
  • Linke +0.3average 2.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

180 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CSU: 74 seatsGrüne: 29 seatsAfD: 27 seatsSPD: 23 seatsFreie Wähler: 15 seatsFDP: 12 seatsMajority from 91180of 180 seats
  • CSU74
  • Grüne29
  • AfD27
  • SPD23
  • Freie Wähler15
  • FDP12
  • CSU + Grüne103 of 180
  • CSU + AfD101 of 180
  • CSU + SPD97 of 180
  • CSU + Freie Wähler + FDP101 of 180
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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