Single poll

INSA poll of 4 October 2025 for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
16 to 23 Sep 2025
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU27.0%-1.0
  • AfD23.0%+4.0
  • SPD22.0%+1.0
  • Grüne9.0%±0
  • Linke6.0%-3.0
  • FDP4.0%+2.0
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others2.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Apr 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 23.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 16 to 23 Sep 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Apr 2025, AfD gains 4.0 points, Linke loses 3.0 points, FDP gains 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 5.5 points higher and CDU 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +5.5average 17.5
  • CDU -2.0average 29.0
  • SPD -1.8average 23.8
  • Grüne -1.8average 10.8
  • FDP +1.5average 2.5
  • BSW +1.0average 3.0
  • Freie Wähler -1.0average 4.0
  • Linke +0.7average 5.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

101 seats by Sainte-Laguë, electoral threshold 5%.

CDU: 31 seatsAfD: 27 seatsSPD: 26 seatsGrüne: 10 seatsLinke: 7 seatsMajority from 51101of 101 seats
  • CDU31
  • AfD27
  • SPD26
  • Grüne10
  • Linke7
  • CDU + AfD58 of 101
  • CDU + SPD57 of 101
  • AfD + SPD53 of 101
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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