Single poll
YouGov poll of 16 July 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 14 Jul 2025
- Respondents
- 1,820
- Method
- Online
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,820 people were surveyed from 11 to 14 Jul 2025, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 18 Jun 2025, AfD gains 2.0 points, Linke gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has AfD 1.9 points higher.
Context
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.9average 23.1
- BSW +1.1average 3.9
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 27.9
- SPD -0.8average 14.8
- Grüne -0.8average 11.8
- FDP -0.4average 3.4
- Linke -0.2average 10.2
Seat projection
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU185
- AfD171
- SPD96
- Grüne75
- Linke69
- BSW34
- CDU/CSU + AfD356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke350 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne342 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
More
More polls
← YouGov, 18 Jun 2025YouGov, 20 Aug 2025 →Average of all pollsters: BundestagSunday question BundestagChronicle 2025
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.