YouGov poll of 15 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 10 to 14 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,771
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
- AfD21.0%±0
- SPD18.0%+2.0
- Grüne14.0%±0
- BSW6.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke4.0%+1.0
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Jan 2025.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,771 people were surveyed from 10 to 14 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Jan 2025, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has SPD 2.1 points higher and AfD 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +2.1average 15.9
- AfD +1.7average 19.3
- CDU/CSU -1.2average 31.2
- BSW +0.7average 5.3
- Linke +0.7average 3.3
- Grüne +0.4average 13.6
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU213
- AfD149
- SPD127
- Grüne99
- BSW42
- CDU/CSU + AfD362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW354 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.