Single poll

YouGov poll of 15 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
10 to 14 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,771
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
  • AfD21.0%±0
  • SPD18.0%+2.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • BSW6.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Jan 2025.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,771 people were surveyed from 10 to 14 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Jan 2025, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has SPD 2.1 points higher and AfD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +2.1average 15.9
  • AfD +1.7average 19.3
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 31.2
  • BSW +0.7average 5.3
  • Linke +0.7average 3.3
  • Grüne +0.4average 13.6
  • FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 213 seatsAfD: 149 seatsSPD: 127 seatsGrüne: 99 seatsBSW: 42 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU213
  • AfD149
  • SPD127
  • Grüne99
  • BSW42
  • CDU/CSU + AfD362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW354 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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