Single poll

YouGov poll of 8 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
3 Dec 2024 to 6 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,908
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
  • AfD21.0%+2.0
  • SPD16.0%-2.0
  • Grüne14.0%+1.0
  • BSW6.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Dec 2024.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,908 people were surveyed from 3 Dec 2024 to 6 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Dec 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 2.9 points lower and AfD 2.3 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.9average 31.9
  • AfD +2.3average 18.7
  • FDP +1.4average 3.6
  • Grüne +0.6average 13.4
  • BSW +0.6average 5.4
  • SPD -0.1average 16.1
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 201 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsBSW: 41 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU201
  • AfD145
  • SPD111
  • Grüne97
  • BSW41
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW353 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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