YouGov poll of 8 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 3 Dec 2024 to 6 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 1,908
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
- AfD21.0%+2.0
- SPD16.0%-2.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.0
- BSW6.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Dec 2024.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,908 people were surveyed from 3 Dec 2024 to 6 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Dec 2024, AfD gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 2.9 points lower and AfD 2.3 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.9average 31.9
- AfD +2.3average 18.7
- FDP +1.4average 3.6
- Grüne +0.6average 13.4
- BSW +0.6average 5.4
- SPD -0.1average 16.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU201
- AfD145
- SPD111
- Grüne97
- BSW41
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne409 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW353 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.