YouGov poll of 5 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Nov 2024 to 3 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,879
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-3.0
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD18.0%+3.0
- Grüne13.0%+1.0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 14 Nov 2024.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,879 people were surveyed from 29 Nov 2024 to 3 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 14 Nov 2024, CDU/CSU loses 3.0 points, SPD gains 3.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 3.1 points lower and SPD 2.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -3.1average 33.1
- SPD +2.7average 15.3
- Freie Wähler -1.5average 2.5
- AfD +1.0average 18.0
- BSW +1.0average 6.0
- Grüne +0.7average 12.3
- FDP +0.3average 3.7
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU217
- AfD138
- SPD130
- Grüne94
- BSW51
- CDU/CSU + AfD355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD347 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.