Single poll

YouGov poll of 14 November 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
8 to 12 Nov 2024
Respondents
1,805
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU33.0%+1.0
  • AfD19.0%+1.0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • BSW7.0%-1.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler1.0%±0
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 10 Oct 2024.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 33.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,805 people were surveyed from 8 to 12 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 10 Oct 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Freie Wähler 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler -2.0average 3.0
  • AfD +1.4average 17.6
  • FDP +0.9average 4.1
  • SPD -0.8average 15.8
  • Grüne +0.7average 11.3
  • Linke -0.3average 3.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.1average 33.1
  • BSW -0.1average 7.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 228 seatsAfD: 132 seatsSPD: 104 seatsGrüne: 83 seatsBSW: 48 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU228
  • AfD132
  • SPD104
  • Grüne83
  • BSW48
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD332 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP346 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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