YouGov poll of 10 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 4 to 8 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,773
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+2.0
- Grüne11.0%-2.0
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler1.0%±0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 13 Sep 2024.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,773 people were surveyed from 4 to 8 Oct 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 13 Sep 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, Grüne loses 2.0 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Freie Wähler 1.8 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Freie Wähler -1.8average 2.8
- FDP +1.2average 3.8
- SPD +0.5average 15.5
- AfD +0.4average 17.6
- Grüne -0.2average 11.2
- BSW +0.2average 7.8
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 32.1
- Linke +0.1average 2.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU224
- AfD126
- SPD112
- Grüne77
- BSW56
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.