YouGov poll of 16 August 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 9 to 13 Aug 2024
- Respondents
- 1,998
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- BSW8.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%-1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler1.0%-1.0
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Jul 2024.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,998 people were surveyed from 9 to 13 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 5 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has AfD 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.4average 16.6
- Freie Wähler -1.1average 2.1
- CDU/CSU -0.2average 31.2
- SPD +0.1average 14.9
- BSW -0.1average 8.1
- Grüne ±0average 12.0
- FDP ±0average 5.0
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU217
- AfD133
- SPD105
- Grüne84
- BSW56
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.