YouGov poll of 5 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Jun 2024 to 3 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,711
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
- AfD19.0%+1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- BSW9.0%±0
- FDP6.0%+2.0
- Linke3.0%-1.0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others6.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 7 Jun 2024.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,711 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2024 to 3 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 7 Jun 2024, FDP gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has AfD 2.4 points higher and BSW 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.4average 16.6
- BSW +1.9average 7.1
- SPD -1.1average 15.1
- Grüne -0.8average 12.8
- FDP +0.7average 5.3
- Freie Wähler -0.7average 2.7
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 30.6
- Linke +0.1average 2.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU210
- AfD133
- SPD98
- Grüne84
- BSW63
- FDP42
- CDU/CSU + AfD343 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne392 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW371 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW357 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.