Single poll

YouGov poll of 10 May 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
3 to 8 May 2024
Respondents
1,749
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+1.0
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%+2.0
  • Grüne14.0%-1.0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke4.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler1.0%±0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 11 Apr 2024.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,749 people were surveyed from 3 to 8 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 11 Apr 2024, SPD gains 2.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Freie Wähler 1.9 points lower and AfD 1.7 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler -1.9average 2.9
  • AfD +1.7average 17.3
  • BSW +1.2average 5.8
  • FDP -1.0average 5.0
  • Linke +0.8average 3.2
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.5
  • SPD +0.4average 15.6
  • Grüne +0.2average 13.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 220 seatsAfD: 139 seatsSPD: 117 seatsGrüne: 103 seatsBSW: 51 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU220
  • AfD139
  • SPD117
  • Grüne103
  • BSW51
  • CDU/CSU + AfD359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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