Single poll

YouGov poll of 7 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
1 to 5 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,762
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-2.0
  • AfD19.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%+2.0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler1.0%±0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Feb 2024.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,762 people were surveyed from 1 to 5 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Freie Wähler 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler -1.8average 2.8
  • CDU/CSU -1.2average 30.2
  • FDP -0.9average 4.9
  • Linke +0.9average 3.1
  • BSW +0.7average 6.3
  • Grüne +0.5average 13.5
  • AfD +0.2average 18.8
  • SPD -0.2average 15.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 218 seatsAfD: 142 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 105 seatsBSW: 52 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU218
  • AfD142
  • SPD113
  • Grüne105
  • BSW52
  • CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne360 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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