Single poll

YouGov poll of 8 February 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
2 to 6 Feb 2024
Respondents
2,018
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+2.0
  • AfD20.0%-4.0
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • Grüne12.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%
  • FDP4.0%-2.0
  • Linke3.0%-2.0
  • Freie Wähler1.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 11 Jan 2024.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 2,018 people were surveyed from 2 to 6 Feb 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 11 Jan 2024, AfD loses 4.0 points, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, FDP loses 2.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Freie Wähler 1.9 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Freie Wähler -1.9average 2.9
  • SPD -1.4average 15.4
  • Grüne -1.4average 13.4
  • AfD +0.8average 19.2
  • CDU/CSU +0.6average 30.4
  • BSW +0.6average 6.4
  • FDP -0.6average 4.6
  • Linke -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 233 seatsAfD: 150 seatsSPD: 105 seatsGrüne: 90 seatsBSW: 52 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU233
  • AfD150
  • SPD105
  • Grüne90
  • BSW52
  • CDU/CSU + AfD383 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne323 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne345 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.