YouGov poll of 11 January 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- YouGov
- Fieldwork period
- 3 to 8 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,614
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
- AfD24.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne12.0%-2.0
- FDP6.0%±0
- Linke5.0%+1.0
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others7.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Dec 2023.
In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,614 people were surveyed from 3 to 8 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.
Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 8 Dec 2023, Grüne loses 2.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 2.9 points lower and AfD 2.1 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.9average 31.9
- AfD +2.1average 21.9
- Grüne -1.3average 13.3
- Linke +1.2average 3.8
- FDP +1.1average 4.9
- Freie Wähler -1.1average 3.1
- SPD +0.3average 14.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU201
- AfD166
- SPD104
- Grüne83
- FDP41
- Linke35
- CDU/CSU + AfD367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne388 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP346 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP325 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.