Single poll

YouGov poll of 4 February 2021 for the federal election

Commissioned by
YouGov
Fieldwork period
29 Jan 2021 to 1 Feb 2021
Respondents
1,606
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU36.0%±0
  • Grüne18.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • AfD10.0%±0
  • Linke9.0%±0
  • FDP7.0%+1.0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 6 Jan 2021.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 36.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,606 people were surveyed from 29 Jan 2021 to 1 Feb 2021, method Online, commissioned by YouGov.

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 6 Jan 2021, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has Linke 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Feb 2021. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +1.6average 7.4
  • Grüne -1.1average 19.1
  • AfD +0.7average 9.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 36.4
  • SPD -0.3average 15.3
  • FDP +0.2average 6.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 239 seatsGrüne: 119 seatsSPD: 100 seatsAfD: 66 seatsLinke: 60 seatsFDP: 46 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU239
  • Grüne119
  • SPD100
  • AfD66
  • Linke60
  • FDP46
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP345 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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