Single poll

YouGov poll of 31 January 2019 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND)
Fieldwork period
25 to 29 Jan 2019
Respondents
1,578
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU32.0%+2.0
  • Grüne18.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • AfD14.0%±0
  • Linke9.0%-1.0
  • FDP8.0%±0
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 28 Dec 2018.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by Grüne on 18.0%. 1,578 people were surveyed from 25 to 29 Jan 2019, method Online, commissioned by RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 28 Dec 2018, CDU/CSU gains 2.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU +1.9average 30.1
  • Grüne -1.0average 19.0
  • FDP -0.9average 8.9
  • AfD +0.4average 13.6
  • Linke +0.1average 8.9
  • SPD ±0average 15.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 210 seatsGrüne: 118 seatsSPD: 98 seatsAfD: 92 seatsLinke: 59 seatsFDP: 53 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU210
  • Grüne118
  • SPD98
  • AfD92
  • Linke59
  • FDP53
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD400 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke361 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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