Single poll

YouGov poll of 30 August 2018 for the federal election

Commissioned by
RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND)
Fieldwork period
24 to 28 Aug 2018
Respondents
1,538
Method
Unbekannt
  • CDU/CSU28.0%-2.0
  • SPD17.0%±0
  • AfD17.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP9.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous YouGov poll of 25 Jul 2018.

In this poll YouGov has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 1,538 people were surveyed from 24 to 28 Aug 2018, method Unbekannt, commissioned by RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

Compared with the previous YouGov poll of 25 Jul 2018, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, YouGov has CDU/CSU 1.9 points lower and AfD 1.5 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Aug 2018. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.9average 29.9
  • AfD +1.5average 15.5
  • Linke +1.5average 9.5
  • Grüne -1.0average 14.0
  • SPD -0.9average 17.9
  • FDP +0.3average 8.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 185 seatsSPD: 113 seatsAfD: 113 seatsGrüne: 86 seatsLinke: 73 seatsFDP: 60 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU185
  • SPD113
  • AfD113
  • Grüne86
  • Linke73
  • FDP60
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + AfD411 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Grüne384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + Linke371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + AfD + FDP358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Linke + FDP318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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