INSA poll of 4 August 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 31 Jul 2026 to 3 Aug 2026
- Respondents
- 2,004
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%±0
- CDU/CSU21.0%±0
- Grüne13.5%-0.5
- SPD12.0%±0
- Linke11.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Others5.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Aug 2026.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 31 Jul 2026 to 3 Aug 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Aug 2026, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Aug 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 21.9
- BSW +0.8average 3.2
- AfD +0.5average 27.5
- Grüne -0.5average 14.0
- FDP +0.5average 4.5
- SPD -0.4average 12.4
- Linke -0.4average 11.4
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD195
- CDU/CSU146
- Grüne94
- SPD83
- Linke77
- FDP35
- AfD + CDU/CSU341 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD372 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke366 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke355 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + FDP324 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD323 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke317 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.