Single poll

INSA poll of 2 August 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
27 to 31 Jul 2026
Respondents
1,201
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD28.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU21.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%+0.5
  • SPD12.0%-0.5
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jul 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 27 to 31 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Jul 2026, FDP gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Aug 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 22.0
  • BSW +0.8average 3.2
  • AfD +0.6average 27.4
  • FDP +0.5average 4.5
  • SPD -0.4average 12.4
  • Linke -0.4average 11.4
  • Grüne ±0average 14.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 194 seatsCDU/CSU: 145 seatsGrüne: 97 seatsSPD: 83 seatsLinke: 76 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD194
  • CDU/CSU145
  • Grüne97
  • SPD83
  • Linke76
  • FDP35
  • AfD + CDU/CSU339 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD374 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke367 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke353 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke318 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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