Single poll

INSA poll of 18 July 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
13 to 17 Jul 2026
Respondents
1,201
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD29.0%+0.5
  • CDU/CSU21.0%-0.5
  • SPD13.0%+0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%-0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW3.0%-1.0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jul 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 13 to 17 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jul 2026, BSW loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.7 points higher and Linke 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.7average 27.3
  • Linke -1.6average 11.6
  • Grüne -1.3average 14.3
  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 22.0
  • SPD +0.4average 12.6
  • FDP -0.4average 4.4
  • BSW -0.3average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 213 seatsCDU/CSU: 154 seatsSPD: 95 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsLinke: 73 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD213
  • CDU/CSU154
  • SPD95
  • Grüne95
  • Linke73
  • AfD + CDU/CSU367 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne403 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke381 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke381 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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