Single poll

INSA poll of 14 July 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
10 to 13 Jul 2026
Respondents
2,006
Method
Online
  • AfD28.5%+0.5
  • CDU/CSU21.5%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • SPD12.5%+0.5
  • Linke10.5%-0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • Others6.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Jul 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.5%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.5%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 10 to 13 Jul 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Jul 2026, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.2average 27.3
  • Grüne -1.1average 14.1
  • BSW +0.9average 3.1
  • Linke -0.8average 11.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 22.2
  • FDP -0.5average 4.5
  • SPD ±0average 12.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 209 seatsCDU/CSU: 157 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsSPD: 92 seatsLinke: 77 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD209
  • CDU/CSU157
  • Grüne95
  • SPD92
  • Linke77
  • AfD + CDU/CSU366 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD396 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke381 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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