Single poll

INSA poll of 7 July 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
3 to 6 Jul 2026
Respondents
2,010
Method
Online
  • AfD29.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU22.0%+1.0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • SPD12.5%-0.5
  • Linke10.5%+0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jul 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 3 to 6 Jul 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Jul 2026, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 7 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.6average 27.4
  • Grüne -1.1average 14.1
  • BSW +0.9average 3.1
  • Linke -0.7average 11.2
  • FDP -0.5average 4.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 22.3
  • SPD ±0average 12.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 210 seatsCDU/CSU: 159 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsSPD: 91 seatsLinke: 76 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD210
  • CDU/CSU159
  • Grüne94
  • SPD91
  • Linke76
  • AfD + CDU/CSU369 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD395 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke380 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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