INSA poll of 4 July 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Jun 2026 to 3 Jul 2026
- Respondents
- 1,205
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD29.0%±0
- CDU/CSU21.0%-1.0
- SPD13.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- Linke10.0%-0.5
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%+0.5
- Others6.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Jun 2026.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 21.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 29 Jun 2026 to 3 Jul 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Jun 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jul 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.6average 27.4
- CDU/CSU -1.3average 22.3
- Linke -1.2average 11.2
- Grüne -1.1average 14.1
- BSW +0.9average 3.1
- SPD +0.5average 12.5
- FDP -0.5average 4.5
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD213
- CDU/CSU154
- SPD95
- Grüne95
- Linke73
- AfD + CDU/CSU367 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne403 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke381 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke381 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.