Single poll

INSA poll of 19 May 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
15 to 18 May 2026
Respondents
2,005
Method
Online
  • AfD29.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU22.0%±0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • SPD12.5%+0.5
  • Linke10.5%+0.5
  • FDP3.5%+0.5
  • BSW3.5%+0.5
  • Others5.0%-2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 May 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 2,005 people were surveyed from 15 to 18 May 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 May 2026, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.3 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.3average 26.7
  • CDU/CSU -1.6average 23.6
  • FDP -0.4average 3.9
  • BSW +0.3average 3.2
  • Linke -0.2average 10.7
  • Grüne ±0average 14.0
  • SPD ±0average 12.5
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 208 seatsCDU/CSU: 158 seatsGrüne: 100 seatsSPD: 89 seatsLinke: 75 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD208
  • CDU/CSU158
  • Grüne100
  • SPD89
  • Linke75
  • AfD + CDU/CSU366 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + SPD397 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke383 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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