INSA poll of 16 May 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 11 to 15 May 2026
- Respondents
- 1,203
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD29.0%+1.0
- CDU/CSU22.0%-1.0
- Grüne14.0%+1.5
- SPD12.0%-1.0
- Linke10.0%-1.0
- FDP3.0%-0.5
- BSW3.0%-0.5
- Others7.0%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 May 2026.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 29.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 22.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 May 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 May 2026, Grüne gains 1.5 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.4 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.4average 26.6
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 23.6
- FDP -0.9average 3.9
- Linke -0.7average 10.7
- SPD -0.5average 12.5
- BSW -0.2average 3.2
- Grüne -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD210
- CDU/CSU160
- Grüne101
- SPD87
- Linke72
- AfD + CDU/CSU370 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + SPD398 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke383 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + SPD348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.