INSA poll of 12 May 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 11 May 2026
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- AfD28.0%±0
- CDU/CSU23.0%±0
- SPD13.0%±0
- Grüne12.5%-0.5
- Linke11.0%±0
- FDP3.5%+0.5
- BSW3.5%+0.5
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2026.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 8 to 11 May 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 May 2026, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.8 points lower and AfD 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.8average 14.3
- AfD +1.7average 26.3
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 23.9
- Linke +0.6average 10.4
- FDP -0.6average 4.1
- SPD +0.4average 12.6
- BSW +0.3average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD201
- CDU/CSU166
- SPD94
- Grüne90
- Linke79
- AfD + CDU/CSU367 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne385 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke374 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke335 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.