Single poll

INSA poll of 9 May 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
4 to 8 May 2026
Respondents
1,200
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD28.0%+0.5
  • CDU/CSU23.0%-1.0
  • SPD13.0%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%+0.5
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • BSW3.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%+2.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 May 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 28.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 23.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 4 to 8 May 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 5 May 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.9average 26.1
  • CDU/CSU -1.1average 24.1
  • Grüne -1.1average 14.1
  • FDP -0.9average 3.9
  • Linke +0.4average 10.6
  • BSW -0.2average 3.2
  • SPD ±0average 13.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 200 seatsCDU/CSU: 165 seatsSPD: 93 seatsGrüne: 93 seatsLinke: 79 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD200
  • CDU/CSU165
  • SPD93
  • Grüne93
  • Linke79
  • AfD + CDU/CSU365 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne386 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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