Single poll

INSA poll of 5 May 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
30 Apr 2026 to 4 May 2026
Respondents
2,008
Method
Online
  • AfD27.5%-0.5
  • CDU/CSU24.0%±0
  • SPD13.5%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • Linke10.5%-0.5
  • FDP4.0%+1.0
  • BSW3.5%+0.5
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 May 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 27.5%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 30 Apr 2026 to 4 May 2026, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 May 2026, FDP gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 May 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.8average 25.7
  • Grüne -1.1average 14.1
  • SPD +0.5average 13.0
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 24.4
  • FDP +0.3average 3.7
  • BSW +0.3average 3.2
  • Linke -0.1average 10.6
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 196 seatsCDU/CSU: 171 seatsSPD: 96 seatsGrüne: 92 seatsLinke: 75 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD196
  • CDU/CSU171
  • SPD96
  • Grüne92
  • Linke75
  • AfD + CDU/CSU367 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne384 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke367 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke363 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke342 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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