INSA poll of 31 January 2026 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 30 Jan 2026
- Respondents
- 1,204
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU26.0%+1.0
- AfD26.0%±0
- SPD16.0%+1.5
- Grüne11.0%-0.5
- Linke10.0%-0.5
- BSW4.0%-0.5
- FDP3.0%-1.0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2026.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 26.0%. 1,204 people were surveyed from 26 to 30 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2026, SPD gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.
- SPD +1.2average 14.8
- Grüne -1.2average 12.2
- BSW +0.9average 3.1
- AfD +0.7average 25.3
- FDP -0.6average 3.6
- CDU/CSU +0.4average 25.6
- Linke -0.2average 10.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU184
- AfD184
- SPD113
- Grüne78
- Linke71
- CDU/CSU + AfD368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke368 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke368 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke333 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.