Single poll

INSA poll of 10 January 2026 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
5 to 9 Jan 2026
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD26.0%+0.5
  • CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
  • SPD14.0%-0.5
  • Grüne12.0%+1.0
  • Linke11.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%+0.5
  • BSW3.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Jan 2026.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 5 to 9 Jan 2026, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Jan 2026, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 10 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.4average 25.4
  • Linke +0.8average 10.2
  • BSW -0.6average 3.6
  • FDP +0.4average 3.6
  • AfD +0.3average 25.7
  • Grüne -0.2average 12.2
  • SPD -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 188 seatsCDU/CSU: 174 seatsSPD: 101 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsLinke: 80 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD188
  • CDU/CSU174
  • SPD101
  • Grüne87
  • Linke80
  • AfD + CDU/CSU362 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne376 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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